Bill Gates is forthright and unabashed about his influence in the climate domain today. “So, who is the primary investor in climate innovation firms?” he asked a group of journalists at a media roundtable last week. “If there’s anyone else, I haven’t met them.”
The ex-Microsoft CEO has dedicated the last ten years to funding climate technology through Breakthrough Energy, which he established in 2015. With the UN climate meetings approaching next week, Gates released a memo detailing what he believes activists and negotiators should prioritize and his current perspective on the state of climate technology. Let’s delve into it.
Are we overly fixated on immediate climate objectives?
A key argument Gates presented in his latest memo is that he believes the world has become too engrossed in short-term emissions targets and national emissions accountability.
Thus, alongside the national framework for emissions, Gates contends we should engage in high-level climate dialogues at gatherings like the UN climate conference. These conversations should adopt a global perspective on how to curb emissions in critical sectors such as energy and heavy industry.
“The way steel is produced is uniform across the board. The way cement is made doesn’t vary. The method for creating fertilizer is consistent,” he remarks.
As noted in a recent article for MIT Technology Review, he views innovation as crucial to lowering the costs of clean alternatives in energy, cement, vehicles, etc. And as costs decrease, broader adoption can occur.
What will most likely supply our electricity in the future?
“In the long term, likely either fission or fusion will emerge as the most economical method for generating electricity,” he states. (It should be noted that, like many climate technologies, Gates has stakes in both fission and fusion firms through Breakthrough Energy Ventures, indicating his vested interest.)
However, he concedes that reactors may not be able to start operating swiftly enough to address the increasing electricity demand in the US: “I wish I could deliver nuclear fusion, say, three years sooner than currently possible.”
He also commented on China’s advancements in both nuclear fission and fusion energy. “The level of investment they’re making in fusion exceeds the combined effort of the rest of the world by a factor of two. It’s not guaranteed to succeed, but for every fusion initiative you admire in the US—there’s a corresponding project in China.”
Can carbon removal contribute to the solution?
Thinking of my colleague James Temple’s latest piece on the future of carbon removal, I inquired of Gates whether he regarded carbon credits or carbon removal as elements of the problematic short-term mindset discussed in his memo.
Gates purchases offsets to neutralize his personal emissions, spending about $9 million annually, he disclosed at the roundtable, yet he doesn’t anticipate many of those offsets will yield substantial progress in climate efforts on a larger scale: “Most of those technologies are essentially futile. They don’t succeed in making a notable difference at a lower cost.
“Carbon sequestration at prices of $400, $200, $100 can never play a significant role. If you can develop a technology that starts at $400 and can reach $4, then great, let’s proceed. I haven’t encountered such an innovation. There are a few now that appear capable of reaching $40 or $50, which could have some impact.”
Will AI be beneficial for innovation?
During our conversation, I began tallying in my notebook, marking a tick each time Gates mentioned AI. Over the span of about an hour, I counted six ticks, and I likely missed some.
Gates recognized that AI will increase electricity demand, posing a problem for a US grid that hasn’t experienced a rise in net demand for decades. However, electric vehicles and heat pumps will contribute as well.
I was taken aback by his remarkably positive remarks regarding AI’s potential:
“AI will expedite every innovation process imaginable: cancer research, Alzheimer’s treatment, material science catalysts, you name it. We’re all endeavoring to understand the implications. This is the most significant change agent in the world today, advancing at a remarkably fast pace … every breakthrough energy company will achieve increased momentum by leveraging these tools, in some instances dramatically.”
I should mention that, as I’ve previously indicated, I hold reservations about grand claims regarding AI’s potential to serve as a panacea across various sectors, including climate technology. (If you missed it, take a look at this article about AI and the grid from earlier this year.)
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