French PM endures significant trial but relief period will be short-lived

Sébastien Lecornu, the newly appointed prime minister of France, has gained some leeway after overcoming two no-confidence votes initiated by the opposition.

In the closest result, a motion brought by the far left was 18 votes shy of the 289 necessary to oust him.

Thus, after merely five days in his new role, Lecornu has withstood a significant challenge in parliament and can now concentrate on advancing the 2026 budget.

However, any respite for the prime minister may be fleeting, as both the far left and far right remain determined to topple him. Additionally, the Socialists, who previously supported the no-confidence motions, have indicated they will not be as accommodating next time.

Moreover, any temporary success allowing the government to persevere is far outweighed by the substantial damage to France’s standing, inflicted by weeks of uncertainty and surrender.

Lecornu, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron four weeks ago and then reinstated amidst turmoil on Friday after resigning on Monday, only remains in his position due to significant concessions made to the left.

To secure the backing of the Socialist Party, which has approximately 65 MPs, the prime minister has promised to suspend Macron’s key economic reform of his second term – the increase of the retirement age to 64.

However, he also offered another, potentially more critical concession to the opposition, which significantly affects the likelihood of achieving a budget by the year-end deadline.

By committing not to utilize the constitutional mechanism referred to as 49:3 – which allows governments to pass laws without a vote – Lecornu granted ultimate authority over the budget to the parliamentary parties.

This represents a major shift in power, mirroring the erosion of presidential influence following Macron’s failed parliamentary dissolution in July 2024. Many observers view this as a signal of a return, for better or worse, to the party maneuvers that characterized the pre-1958 Fourth Republic.

By assuring MPs that they, not the government, would have the final say on the impending budget, Lecornu successfully convinced the Socialists of his intent to create a genuine “rupture” from previous Macron administrations.

Yet, he may have also forfeited any chance of implementing the kind of budgetary austerity that financial markets and the European Union are insisting upon.

The budget proposal presented by Lecornu on Tuesday aims to curtail the deficit to 4.7% of GDP by achieving savings of €30bn (£26bn), which includes cuts in healthcare and local government spending.

However, the Socialists have joined forces with other left-wing groups and the far-right to denounce the proposal as a betrayal of the underprivileged.

Party head Olivier Faure stated he would have no hesitation in backing a new censure vote if the contentious aspects of the budget remain intact.

For the past 15 months, France’s National Assembly has been divided into three factions, with a centre-right group of fewer than 200 MPs opposing a left-wing coalition of a similar magnitude and a far-right contingent of around 140, alongside some independents.

None of the three prime ministers in that time has managed to establish a dependable majority.

Prolonged disputes in Paris have raised alarms about the public’s increasing disenchantment with politics – the situation seeming to reinforce the perception that the primary interest of most politicians is merely to retain power.

Most French voters hold President Macron responsible for the crisis, leading to his approval ratings plummeting to a mere 14%. After eight years in office, calls for his resignation from both the far-right and far-left have emerged, ahead of the conclusion of his second term in 18 months.

According to his former advisor, the seasoned essayist and confidant of presidents Alain Minc, Macron “must now be remembered as the least effective president of the Fifth Republic”.

Minc remarked that Macron entered office vowing to be a safeguard against the far right but has allowed National Rally to be on the threshold of power.

If we look at the broader context,” Minc noted, “the Germans are terrified of the economic fallout from a French collapse. The British are anxious about the strategic repercussions. The Italians seem to be mocking us, considering we frequently mocked them.”

In the United States, President Trump has commented that smooth-talking Macron has received his due. Only in Russia are there smiles.”