Investing Guidance – Oct 24, 2025

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1. Executive Summary

· Today’s Dominant Driver: All eyes on 8:30 AM CPI (Sep) first major gov’t print during the shutdown. Cool core = bonds/tech bid (TLT/XLK); hot core = value/financials (XLF) & broader risk-off

· Key Opportunity: Earnings momentum in “picks-and-shovels”, Intel beat → semis bid, FIX beat → multi-year AI data-center & infrastructure supercycle confirmed

· Primary Risk: Macro one-two punch, CPI surprise + Services PMI <50 could flip market to safety (TLT/GLD) and steepen vol; watch 9:45 AM ET Flash PMI & 10:00 AM ET U-Mich final

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2. The Macro Pulse: Rates & The Economic Calendar

08:30 AM CPI (Sep) First major government data during the shutdown; a softer core tilts Risk-on (rates down, TLT/XLK up), a hotter print tilts Risk-off (rates up, XLF up, SPY/QQQ down)

09:45 AM S&P Global Flash PMI (Oct) Services≥54 = resilient growth (cyclicals steady); <50 = recession risk (defensives/TLT/GLD favored). Manufacturing ≥53 = cycle upturn signal

10:00 AM Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final Oct). ≥65 = consumers feeling better → Risk-on in XLY/XRT; <50 = stress signal → shift to XLP, TLT/GLD

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3. Earnings & Corporate Action Intel

A. Key Earnings Tomorrw (After Close):

$FIX (Comfort Systems USA) — after-hours +17.4%, EPS $8.25 beat

• Record backlog $9.38B (+65.1% YoY) = lots of signed work ahead, multi-year AI data-center & energy-infra supercycle
• Revenue +35.2% YoY = HVAC/mechanical demand is surging → downstream Q4 orders above expectations

Actionable Intel: huge read-through to the data-center infrastructure chain: $VRT (power/cooling), $SMCI (server racks), $APH (high-speed connectors)

$INTC (Intel) — after-hours +7.7%

• Price +7.7%, a big earnings beat, but guidance was flat
• DCAI −1% + Foundry −2% = negative signal (AI/advanced-node story not yet proven)

Actionable Intel: Catalyst = EPS beat by $0.21 (biggest in 4 years) = short-term  momentum. If the open pulls back to +5–6%, consider buy. Watch read-through: $ASML / $LRCX / $AMAT (equipment); $VRT (data-center infra); $SMCI (AI servers)

$NXT (Nextracker) — after-hours +10.6%

• New catalyst Middle East JV opens Gulf “mega-solar” market, watch JV size/timeline

Actionable Intel: Trend confirmed: FIX surge + NXT strength = clean-energy/solar infrastructure accelerating. If tomorrow’s call shows strong guidance, add $ARRY

$HCA (HCA Healthcare)  — Wait for the call (10:00–11:00 ET)

• New risk: Softer consumer data ($ASB), HCA needs pricing power to offset
• Contract labor < 4.5% + EBITDA margin ≥ 20.2% = cost control is the key

Actionable Intel: Buy only if all triggers hit, Surgeries ≥ +3.0%, EBITDA margin ≥ 20.5%, EPS guided to the top of the range. If guidance strong add $THC / $ISRG (surgical chain); If flat: rotate to $UNH / $ELV (payers)

B. Earnings Reactions from Today (Move the Market):

$VLO (Valero Energy) — +6.96%, big EPS beat (+$0.61)

• Refining margins (“crack spreads”) widening = refiners earn more per barrel→ Q4 gasoline/diesel demand stronger than expected, consumer travel is resilient).

Actionable Intel: Broad energy upside, especially refiners, watch $PSX (Phillips 66) $MPC (Marathon Petroleum)

$HON (Honeywell) — +6.81%, beat (+$0.25) but guidance mixed. $FIX (HVAC) + $HON (Building Tech) together = building mechanical/electrical systems “supercycle” = multi-year uptrend confirmed

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4. Volatility & Options Flow: The Smart Money’s Bet

· Unusual Options Activity (UOA) Spotted:

· $IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF): 5,001 contracts of $64 Calls (Oct 31 expiry, 6 DTE, Vol/OI 258). Interpretation: BULLISH, near-term crypto momentum bet

· $SMH (Semiconductor ETF): 2,394 contracts of $200 Calls (Dec 19 expiry, 55 DTE, Vol/OI 80). Interpretation: BULLISH, medium-term upside on chip sector continuation

· $SPY (S&P 500 ETF): 5,732 contracts of $637 Puts (Nov 21 expiry, Vol/OI 3,238), 4,124 contracts of $635 Puts (Nov 14 expiry, Vol/OI 80), 4,100 contracts of $661 Puts (Nov 14 expiry, Vol/OI 247). Interpretation: looks like hedges or put-selling for income, not an outright crash bet, expect choppy near term

 · $GHRS: 3,000 contracts of $15 Calls (Nov 21 expiry, Vol/OI 11,357). Interpretation: BULLISH, very high fresh positioning; possible M&A/earnings speculation

· Volatility Watch (VIX & Term Structure):

  · The VIX is at 17.30(down -6.99% today). The VIX futures curve is in contango. Interpretation: [Backwardation suggests near-term fear/uncertainty. Contango suggests complacency.]

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5. Critical News & Geopolitics

· Geopolitical: U.S. Treasury sanctions Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil; Oil rallied +5.6% to $61.78/barrel. Bullish for $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, $COP; potential headwind easing for $BABA, $NIO, $BIDU if tariffs reduced

· Regulatory: Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger faces regulatory scrutiny Impact: Deal uncertainty weighs on $UNP, $NSC; Creates overhang for rail sector $CSX, $KSU 

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Disclaimer: This document is a synthesis of publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions carry risk.

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