In Kalshi’s serene Manhattan workspace during election night, co-founder Tarek Mansour demonstrated how his rapidly expanding prediction market forecasts races quicker than traditional media.
In Kalshi’s serene Manhattan workspace during election night, co-founder Tarek Mansour demonstrated how his rapidly expanding prediction market forecasts races quicker than traditional media.
This is an excerpt of Sources by Alex Heath, a newsletter focused on AI and the technology sector, syndicated exclusively for The Verge subscribers weekly.
At 8PM on election night in New York City, I showed up at a nondescript office structure in the Meatpacking District.
Inside, several dozen young Kalshi team members navigated through groups of desks, pizza containers, and a substantial projector exhibiting live markets for the day’s pivotal races. The atmosphere was calm yet concentrated. On the display, figures twinkled as wagers changed in real-time.
By the projector, co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara conversed with a CBS News team recording a segment for the following morning. CBS had announced the Virginia governor’s race results. Mansour highlighted that Kalshi’s market had forecasted the outcome nearly an hour earlier.
I anticipated a busy trading floor atmosphere. Instead, the office felt restrained. “I believe it’s quieter than normal due to less volatility in this one,” Mansour remarked later from a small meeting room. The New York mayoral race had long been viewed as a done deal. Zohran Mamdani had been considered to have about a 95 percent chance of winning on Kalshi (and its competitor Polymarket) even prior to the polls closing. Nevertheless, approximately $100 million in trades for the New York race occurred on Kalshi that day.
In the past months, I’ve been observing the growth of prediction markets and especially Kalshi. Though federally authorized and significantly larger than Polymarket, it is the latter that monopolizes discussions in technology spheres. Mansour seeks to change that.
“Kalshi is arguably one of — if not the — fastest-expanding companies in America this year,” he stated. “We are handling a billion dollars in transaction volume weekly now.” The previous year, the company recorded only $300 million for the full year. Mansour refrained from disclosing revenue numbers, but even at a 1–2 percent fee per trade, the calculations indicate that business is thriving.
Three elements have driven that growth this year: acquiring a federal license to operate, branching into sports betting, and forming a partnership with Robinhood to fuel prediction markets. While sports have been a significant attraction, Mansour’s objectives extend far beyond that.
“I believe prediction markets are the next evolution of the stock market,” he asserted. “They carry media implications. Everyone is an expert on something — everyone forms opinions. These markets assign a value to those perspectives.”
He alluded to upcoming collaborations with media organizations and even connections to entertainment events. “We’re collaborating significantly with news outlets in the months ahead,” he stated. “If the truth derived from these markets becomes mainstream, we have essentially fulfilled our mission.”
Considering the infancy of prediction markets, both Kalshi and Polymarket must still demonstrate their reliability as sources for election predictions. Fox News faced a reputational setback for prematurely calling Arizona for Joe Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Kalshi and Polymarket boast about predicting races even ahead of results being disclosed. If either misses a crucial race, it could jeopardize the credibility of prediction markets.
With under an hour remaining before polls closed, Mansour presented me with Kalshi statistics from the New York mayoral race. Voters in the city were more heavily investing in Andrew Cuomo contracts, while Mamdani reigned in other areas. He was gaining traction among women and younger investors; Cuomo’s backing skewed towards an older, male demographic.
As we engaged in conversation, Kalshi announced the New Jersey governor’s race at 8:20PM — 32 minutes before any news source did. Mansour equated Kalshi’s function to that of financial markets: “Should the stock market eliminate the need for bank analysts? No. Analysts add insight, and the market identifies the genuine price. We are achieving the same objective for events.”
I inquired whether people frequently text him for forecasts, particularly during an election night. He chuckled. “Certainly. But I advise them: just observe the market. I lack any additional information.”
As the clock approached 9PM, I presumed he would remain in the office as the polls closed. However, as I entered my Uber, I spotted him rush out and get into another vehicle further down the street.
He didn’t need to linger. Kalshi called the New York race for Mamdani one minute after the polls closed and 36 minutes ahead of any news outlet.
