Closure of the Strait of Hormuz left tankers from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates stranded; together those nations supply about 20 percent of the world’s LNG. Asia has been hit particularly hard because it sources some 80 to 90 percent of its Persian Gulf supply from there. Reopening the strait will not immediately return all lost volumes. In mid-March, Iranian missiles damaged roughly 17 percent of capacity at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, and QatarEnergy’s CEO warned repairs could take five years.
The United States has pushed hard to expand its share of the global LNG market, with Trump seeking large purchase deals with partners like Japan, the EU, and South Korea. Yet the nation’s eight operational LNG export terminals are already running at full capacity. Although Trump has promised to bring additional capacity online, building and permitting these complex, multibillion-dollar facilities takes years.
As a result, US LNG exports — about 15 billion cubic feet per day — are limited to only roughly 11 percent to 13 percent of total US natural gas production. That dynamic leaves the United States with a surplus of the primary fuel for electricity even as other countries scramble to stretch their supplies.
Still, American consumers have been facing sharply rising electricity bills for many reasons unrelated to the war—mainly because utilities are investing heavily in capital projects, partly to serve a boom in data centers but also to harden the grid against wildfires, storms, and other climate impacts and to replace aging infrastructure.
In their bi-monthly video series, energy analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies mused that the clearest example of US energy independence is largely invisible to American consumers because of these other factors.
“So while we’re staring at the precipice of a global energy crisis, or might already be in one, the United States is going to feel that in oil markets, but we are, for the time being, by the nature of the gas system and the bountiful supply here in the United States, insulated against the gas price shocks?” asked Joseph Majkut, director of the CSIS’ Energy Security and Climate Change program.
