NASA officials dodged questions about Artemis II risks — here’s why

NASA estimated the chance of losing the crew on Crew Dragon’s first astronaut flight in 2020 at about 1 in 276. For Boeing’s Starliner in 2024, the figure was roughly 1 in 295. It’s reasonable to question those assessments given both vehicles’ demonstrated records.

This diagram, produced by NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, outlines how the agency carries out probabilistic risk assessments.

Credit:
NASA

So, how are the Artemis II astronauts reacting to this information?

The mission commander, Reid Wiseman, said the crew has been trying to brief their families “honestly and openly” about the risks of a trip around the Moon.

“I went on a walk with my kids, and I told them, ‘Here’s where the will is, here’s where the trust documents are, and if anything happens to me, here’s what’s going to happen to you,’” Wiseman said. “That is part of this life. I actually wish more people in everyday life talked to their families that way because you never know what the next day is going to bring.”

Any mariner knows you can’t remain anchored forever. Test pilots and astronauts accept managed risks as part of their profession.

“When you see figures like Mach 39 at entry, when you see distances like 38,000 miles, 250,000 miles, and weights of 5 or 6 million pounds on the pad, those are just unbelievable numbers,” Wiseman said. “These magnitudes are hard to fathom. There’s inherent risk in that. We don’t know what we don’t know right now, so we’ll go learn all that [on the mission].

Even with uncertainties, Wiseman is confident: “For me, I actually feel completely 100 percent bought in. When I get into Orion, it’s like climbing into my bed, and I’ll feel warm and tucked in.”

The official risk matrix for Artemis II closely resembles Artemis I’s, with MMOD again topping the list. Matt Ramsey, NASA’s Artemis II mission manager, told Ars in January that the Orion spacecraft’s environmental control and life support system—which did not operate at full capability on Artemis I—is the second-highest risk for Artemis II. “Those two are my biggest worries,” said Ramsey, who has been with NASA since 2002.