The recent session of discussions between the U.S. and Iran resulted in no significant advancements, with both parties deciding to prolong the talks, stated Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, who characterized the negotiations as the “most intense to date.”
“We have achieved further progress in our diplomatic dialogue with the United States,” remarked Araghchi, while indicating that the two parties aimed to address crucial matters like the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran and “nuclear-related actions” in a more “detailed” fashion.
According to Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, who is mediating the discussions, the parties reached “significant progress” during the high-stakes negotiations held in Geneva, Switzerland, and have agreed to reconvene next week in Vienna to focus on technical details.
Al-Busaidi is traveling to Washington to confer with Vice President JD Vance and other U.S. officials on Friday, as reported by MS Now. Vance has previously played down the chance of the U.S. engaging in a lengthy war with Iran, despite escalating military rhetoric from both Tehran and Washington.
Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump noted that Iran appears more eager to reach a “deal” than the U.S., although Tehran’s refusal to promise not to develop nuclear weapons remains a principal obstacle hindering the agreement.
In his State of the Union address this week, Trump emphasized, “They [Iran] want to agree to a deal, but we haven’t received those secret assurances: We will never possess a nuclear weapon.”
As tensions remained elevated, the U.S. amassed a sizable military presence in the Middle East, with Trump cautioning last week that “bad things” could occur if Iran does not comply with a deal regarding the future of its nuclear aspirations.
The third round of discussions this week was conducted under the leadership of U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, while Araghchi led the Iranian team.
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier on Friday that the U.S. delegation presented stringent demands to the Iranian side, which included the destruction of the three primary nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, as well as the transfer of all remaining enriched uranium to the U.S. Iranian representatives have opposed these requirements.
The U.S. team also demanded that any nuclear agreement must be indefinite with no so-called sunset clauses, according to the report citing unnamed U.S. officials.
From nuclear initiatives to ballistic missiles
The core of the negotiations revolves around Iran’s nuclear program, with the U.S. also pressing Tehran to limit its ballistic missile development. Tehran, however, maintains its right to enrich uranium domestically, citing its necessity for energy generation.
Immediately prior to the latest discussions in Switzerland, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran’s unwillingness to engage in talks about its intercontinental ballistic missile development was a major roadblock.
The Trump administration has also insisted that Tehran halt support for regional armed factions and stop repressing peaceful protests at home.
Analysts have warned of potential military confrontation in the area if the two sides fail to achieve a substantial breakthrough, which could lead to upheaval in the broader Middle East and impact oil markets.
“If there isn’t a diplomatic breakthrough in the upcoming days, the U.S. risks engaging in a military conflict with serious escalation potential,” cautioned Michael Hanna, director at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank.
Hanna further highlighted that Washington’s priorities remain uncertain as it presses a broad array of demands on Tehran: “It’s not clear whether the administration itself has a concrete vision for its desired outcome.”
Among Tehran’s priorities in the discussions is the removal of sanctions that have crippled its economy and triggered a currency crisis, igniting widespread protests against the Islamic Republic in December.
The results of this week’s indirect talks will be crucial for the direction of oil prices as traders assess potential supply disruptions if tensions escalate.
WTI futures decreased by 35 cents, or 0.24%, on Friday to $64.97 per barrel. Brent crude futures fell by 38 cents, or 0.30%, reaching $70.54 per barrel.
“The market might wait for a full reaction until the extent of potential U.S. actions against Iran becomes clearer,” explained Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank, predicting that any “targeted and brief” strikes that spare energy infrastructure — reminiscent of last year’s June strikes — with limited pushback from Iran could result in a short-lived spike in oil prices.
However, if Washington opts for long-term measures coupled with more aggressive retaliation from Tehran, oil prices are likely to remain elevated due to supply concerns.
Traders will also keep an eye on the OPEC+ output decision for April this weekend.
“Should we expect de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, it should allow weaker fundamentals to translate into a lower flat price — particularly if OPEC+ proceeds with supply increases starting in April, which we anticipate they will agree to this weekend,” Patterson stated.
