Europe finds itself at a pivotal moment: engage meaningfully in the AI competition or adhere to its leading climate objectives.
“This is akin to a fork in the road for Europe,” remarked Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives during a CNBC discussion. The union faces the choice of either “investing in the future” or risking the chance of “missing a significant aspect of this technology surge.”
The challenge is exacerbated by the region’s green energy mandates.
Worldwide, energy represents the primary obstacle for developing AI-related data center initiatives. While the U.S. activates fossil fuel plants to support its expansion, Europe mandates that developers reveal how they manage energy and water efficiency, creating bureaucratic hurdles that may delay project implementations.
The European Union is regularly praised for its proactive environmental policies and recent advancements such as the upcoming carbon border tax. However, critics claim it hinders business. The region has gained a reputation as “anti-entrepreneur,” according to Ives, prompting tech firms and startups from Europe to relocate to the U.S., Middle East, or Asia in search of more advantageous regulations.
As Europe strives to accelerate its efforts in the AI sector, the necessity for power-intensive infrastructure grows, and the demand for electricity escalates — making this dilemma increasingly difficult to overlook. The additional renewable energy capacity was meant to substitute higher-emission sources, yet there are emerging worries that the reality may differ.
“You can observe in the U.K. that we are already retracting some of our commitments,” Paul Jackson, regional Global Market Strategist at Invesco, expressed to CNBC – and Europe is likely to follow a similar path.
“This is a somewhat standard process that when conditions are favorable, it’s straightforward to convince individuals, companies, and governments to move in the right direction regarding issues like climate change and absorb some of the costs involved,” Jackson stated. Conversely, deprioritizing climate initiatives is one of the simplest actions legislators can take in challenging circumstances with conflicting interests, he added.
The U.K.’s energy grid has no coal, which is much more polluting than gas — whereas Europe’s grid still includes it.
“I’m concerned that, at some point, the closure of coal power plants might actually be delayed,” Jags Walia, head of global listed infrastructure at Van Lanschot Kempen, told CNBC.
Transitioning away from fossil fuels as renewables become available is viable when energy demand remains stable, but that is no longer the situation, he noted. Data centers also necessitate continuous connection, which means the variability of wind and solar could present challenges.
“In terms of electricity, we may not have the capacity to shut down coal power plants, which could pose significant difficulties for the energy transition and energy security as well,” Walia mentioned.
Throughout the year, Europe has reversed several environmental commitments.
On December 16, the EU diluted its effective ban on new combustion-engine vehicles set for 2035. On December 9, it allowed a one-year delay in the rollout of a new EU emissions trading system for buildings, road transportation, and small industries — while simultaneously vowing to reduce emissions by 90% by 2040.
Earlier this year, the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence (CSDDD) and Corporate Sustainability Reporting (CSRD) directives were also limited and postponed.
A ‘pragmatic’ strategy
Some view these adjustments as necessary pragmatism rather than a withdrawal.
“We constantly find ourselves at the brink of reaching a point where it becomes so unappealing to operate in Europe that it is no longer justifiable. On the flip side, much of the regulation is critically needed,” stated Nick de la Forge, a general partner at the venture capital firm Planet A Ventures, which supports climate-focused technology startups, during a CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on December 11.
“Fortunately, what we observe is a fairly substantial revamping.”
The reform of directives, including the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR), which is currently under review, is remarkable, and we view this as a positive change,” De la Forge commented.
Proponents of AI advocate for the technology’s potential to enhance energy efficiency and promote sustainability, portraying it as both a challenge and a solution to the rising demands on the grid, and potentially justifying the investment.
“As AI evolves swiftly, its capacity to bolster Europe’s energy resilience and hasten the clean transition becomes increasingly evident. Concurrently, the escalating electricity requirements of AI technologies necessitate strategic, future-oriented planning,” stated a European Commission spokesperson to CNBC.
They indicated that the economic bloc “is fully poised to capitalize on these prospects while ensuring the stability and reliability of Europe’s energy framework.”
The Commission did not specifically respond to inquiries posed by CNBC regarding a rollback of sustainability legislation due to its AI initiatives or how it plans to achieve the new legally binding target.
Instead, a spokesperson for the bloc made reference to the region’s preparations for a roadmap for employing AI in the energy sector, in sync with its broader Apply AI Strategy, which aims to expedite the technology’s deployment.
‘We’re somewhat in trouble’
If policymakers maintain stringent sustainability standards, AI infrastructure developers may instead counterbalance their emissions with carbon credits or renewable energy certificates. One credit signifies the removal of one metric ton of carbon dioxide or the prevention of one metric ton from entering the atmosphere.
AI hyperscalers “do still have their primary decarbonization objectives” but are reverting to measures such as these to reach them, noted Jim Wright, manager of the Premier Miton Global Infrastructure Income Fund. “Because, in reality, they will utilize certain gas, and may even rely on some coal,” he stated, referring to variations in energy grid compositions.
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This reality was acknowledged in the EU’s December 9 agreement, which included the provision for carbon removal credits to achieve the new reduction goal. Overall, it has ushered in a phase of energy enhancement rather than transition – a trend welcomed by oil CEOs – as AI-driven electricity demand outstrips the supply from renewable sources.
Moreover, it raises concerns about energy security, not merely availability. The race for data centers and AI “puts a significantly greater burden on our energy infrastructure, and as we’ve witnessed in recent years, our resilience in this area has not been particularly strong,” said Jackson. It necessitates the addition of almost a baseline demand for energy to existing grids, potentially leading to increased price volatility and even energy rationing, he warned.
Climate change poses a threat to infrastructure and business continuity — which is an ongoing concern, experts have informed CNBC.
For Kokou Agbo Bloua, global head of research at Société Générale, it’s “a significant issue that cannot be ignored” and one of his primary concerns for the future.
In a conversation with CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday, he stated: “We’re sort of in trouble … pun intended because we’re heading towards two-and-a-half to three degrees [of warming beyond pre-industrial levels]. If you analyze green technologies, they are being utilized for data centers rather than as replacements for fossil fuels.”
However, it may take years before a formal abandonment of Europe’s environmental ambitions occurs. “Often, when it comes to sustainability objectives, if countries are planning to abandon a goal, they tend to delay it until the very last moment,” Walia remarked.
