Time might be running short for the clock master Macron: What lies ahead for France?

Following eight years of governance, Emmanuel Macron’s role as president is facing mounting pressure as France’s political turmoil deepens.

Macron previously referred to himself as maître des horloges – master of the clocks – but his sense of timing appears to have diminished. For the third occasion this year, his selected prime minister has resigned, and surveys indicate nearly three-quarters of the electorate believe the president should resign as well.

Long-time confidant Édouard Philippe, who held the position of Macron’s first prime minister from 2017 to 2020, has advised him to choose a technocrat prime minister and facilitate presidential elections in a “systematic manner”.

However, Macron is more inclined to dissolve parliament than to resign.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced his resignation at the beginning of a day marked by political upheaval on Monday, after holding the position for only 26 days.

Shortly thereafter, he stated he had consented to Macron’s request to remain for an additional 48 hours to conduct last-minute negotiations with political parties “for the country’s stability”.

These surprising developments were the latest in a prolonged series of disturbances that commenced with Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a sudden parliamentary election in June 2024. This resulted in a hung parliament where Macron’s centrist allies lost their majority and were compelled to seek partnerships with other parties.

The leader of one such party, Bruno Retailleau of the conservative Republicans, withdrew from Lecornu’s government 14 hours after it was unveiled.

The significant challenge facing Lecornu and his two predecessors has been addressing France’s overwhelming national debt and bridging the ideological gaps among the centrist parties that might form a government.

Earlier this year, the public debt reached €3,345 billion, roughly 114% of GDP, making it the third highest in the eurozone after Greece and Italy. France’s budget deficit for this year is estimated at 5.4% of GDP.

Michel Barnier and François Bayrou each lasted only three and nine months respectively before being ousted through confidence votes while attempting to address the deficit with restrictive budgets.

Lecornu didn’t even get to the stage of presenting a budget proposal. He faced immediate backlash from all quarters as soon as he revealed his cabinet on Sunday afternoon, and by Monday morning, he had concluded that his role was untenable.

He attributed his exit to the inflexible positions of parties who, according to him, “behave as if they hold a majority”.

Every party is looking ahead to the next presidential elections in 2027 and preparing for the potential of snap parliamentary elections should Macron choose to dissolve parliament again.

The political figures calling for Macron’s resignation have predominantly emerged from the far right and the radical left.

Marine Le Pen and her youthful deputy in the far-right National Rally, Jordan Bardella, are prepared for elections and have declined Lecornu’s invitation for dialogue.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon from the radical left France Unbowed (LFI) has been pushing for Macron’s impeachment, though that prospect seems unlikely. He has the support of the Greens.

Olivier Faure’s center-left Socialists allied with the radical left during the last elections but have been engaging with Lecornu conditional on his establishment of a left-wing government.

Moreover, there is Gabriel Attal, who heads Macron’s own centrist Renaissance party, but has voiced confusion regarding the president’s decisions.

On the centre-right, Bruno Retailleau, whose Republicans have been part of the so-called socle commun (common platform) with the centrists, adds another layer to the equation.

Lecornu is engaged in extensive talks with party representatives and has until Wednesday evening to provide Macron with a “platform of action and stability”.

There are four scenarios—none of which appear favorable.

• If Lecornu succeeds in convincing the centrist parties to create a government, Macron will then be able to appoint a new prime minister, whoever it may be. Lecornu has indicated that he is not eager to take on that responsibility, although that is not an outright rejection. The signs are not promising. Upon his resignation on Monday, Lecornu mentioned: “I was prepared to compromise, but all parties insisted that the other adopt their proposals entirely.” Nonetheless, France requires a budget for 2026 to manage its national debt, and the factions are aware of this necessity.
• Should Lecornu falter, the Elysee has suggested that Macron would “assume responsibility”. This would likely lead to new parliamentary elections, which could be detrimental for his centrist allies and the Socialists, while particularly benefiting Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. Elections would need to occur within a maximum of 40 days post-parliament dissolution—implying voting in November.
• Macron’s term concludes in 18 months, but he is encountering rising pressure to resign. He has consistently dismissed early presidential elections as a possibility, though it cannot be entirely ruled out. Former Macron minister Benjamin Haddad insists that his resignation would be illogical since the incoming president would face the same challenges: “The political divide is here to stay.”
• Even without a governmental agreement, parties could unify in parliament and reach a consensus on a limited budget. However, French politics is not renowned for a culture of compromise.

After his third prime minister in a year announced his resignation on Monday, Macron took a lengthy walk along the River Seine, speaking on his mobile phone.

A publicity stunt? Possibly, but it highlighted the solitary nature of his circumstances as he faces some of the most challenging decisions of his presidency and observes some former allies drifting away.

However, the president has likely been aware of the political obstacles ahead for some time and is not one to surrender without a struggle – or another attempt to stabilize an increasingly unmanageable France. There is a growing perception that time may be running out for the master of the clocks.