The Closure of USAID Will Result in Millions of Fatalities Globally: Research

In 1961, President John F. Kennedy stated that “escaping our responsibilities is not an option” regarding what he termed America’s “ethical duties as a prudent leader and supportive neighbor in the collaborative society of free nations; our financial duties as the most affluent population in a predominantly impoverished world, as a nation that is now independent of foreign loans that once enabled our economic growth; and our political duties as the largest opposition to the threats against liberty.”

Kennedy addressed Congress about international aid and later that same year would initiate through executive order what became known as the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which enabled the U.S. to become the globe’s top foreign aid donor.

For over six decades, USAID has assisted numerous low- and middle-income nations, including those ravaged by conflict, in gaining access to food, clean water, healthcare, and education. It has played a crucial role in curtailing disease outbreaks, transforming agricultural methods, and, in certain instances, fostering democracy.

However, on Tuesday, USAID permanently closes its doors.

The agency’s deconstruction commenced just days after President Donald Trump resumed office at the beginning of the year. Tech mogul and former Trump associate Elon Musk, leading the Department of Government Efficiency, pointed to the agency as a hub of “corruption and inefficiency,” notwithstanding the fact that it accounted for approximately 0.5% of total government expenditures.

In February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who took charge of the agency, announced in March that over 80% of USAID programs had been terminated, and the roughly 1,000 remaining programs would be transferred to the State Department by July 1, despite ongoing legal disputes concerning the constitutional legitimacy of USAID’s closure.

On the eve of USAID’s last day, former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama convened with former staff and humanitarian musician Bono over a video conference. Obama referred to the dismantling of USAID as a “disgrace” and a “catastrophe,” according to the Associated Press.

“You’ve demonstrated the tremendous strength of America through your efforts,” Bush remarked to the USAID personnel. “Is it not in our national interest that 25 million lives that could have been lost are now saved? I believe it is, and so do you.”

Trump, clearly, disagrees.

The question of how many lives will be left unprotected due to the closure of USAID has been the focus of multiple studies and forecasts. 

On Monday, the medical research journal The Lancet reported that USAID averted over 90 million deaths from 2001 to 2021. The research, conducted by experts from Brazil, Mozambique, and Spain, projected that the agency’s defunding could result in around 14 million deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under five years old.

Here are the most significant estimated consequences of the U.S. neglecting Kennedy’s “responsibilities.”

Hundreds of thousands of HIV-AIDS fatalities

To combat HIV globally, President Bush initiated PEPFAR, or the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in 2003. This program supports around 20.6 million individuals with HIV worldwide, including 566,000 children, through the provision of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to manage the infection. The program also offered HIV testing services to 83.8 million individuals in 2024.

USAID served as PEPFAR’s primary implementing agency, and while the State Department is pursuing $2.9 billion in funding to sustain HIV-AIDS initiatives, this amount is significantly lower than the minimum $4.7 billion budget PEPFAR previously enjoyed.

A research published in the Retrovirology journal in March indicated that halting USAID funding could restrict access to ART, potentially causing a resurgence of up to 630,000 annual HIV-AIDS-related deaths, especially affecting sub-Saharan Africa.

Millions of malaria infections

Since the launch of the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) in 2005, USAID has contributed $9 billion to address malaria, a preventable and treatable disease responsible for millions of deaths in Africa each year.

An impact forecast by Dr. Brooke Nichols, a mathematical modeller of infectious diseases from Boston University, and product manager Eric Moakley anticipates nearly 10 million more malaria cases globally—of which approximately 7 million would affect children—in just one year due to cuts in USAID funding.

The tracker considered only African nations involved in PMI and excluded Asian countries that have also benefited from USAID support. “This suggests we might be underestimating PMI’s cessation effects,” it noted.