What do the current diplomatic efforts regarding Ukraine indicate about the sentiments and intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin?
To begin with, he is not prepared to finalize a peace agreement. At least, not at this moment.
And certainly not the agreements (or agreements) under discussion.
“A no-compromise version has yet to be identified,” remarked Kremlin foreign policy assistant Yuri Ushakov following five hours of discussions in Moscow with Putin, US envoy Steve Witkoff, and Donald Trump’s advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner.
The lack of compromise is not exactly shocking, given the Kremlin leader’s steadfast assertions in recent times.
In various remarks, he has denounced the Ukrainian leadership as a “thieving junta,” accused European leaders of attempting to undermine peace initiatives, and maintained that Russia is leading on the battlefield.
On a few recent occasions, Russian television depicted Putin in military gear, analyzing front-line maps and boasting about military successes, many of which Ukraine and international observers have contested.
After almost four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in spite of significant losses Russia has endured on the battlefield and the hit to the Russian economy, President Putin appears convinced that he is prevailing in this conflict and that this is not the time to cease.
At least, that is what he would prefer the West to think: that nothing can deter him now from fulfilling his ambitions.
I have previously mentioned that, in many respects, Vladimir Putin reminds me of a vehicle lacking brakes, steering, and a reverse gear; a machine speeding uncontrollably down the highway.
Almost four years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there remains no indication of the “Putinmobile” slowing down, reversing, or stopping.
He certainly wishes his adversaries to believe that nothing or nobody can compel him to alter his course: neither European leaders, nor the Trump administration, nor President Zelensky.
But vehicles require fuel (a steady supply).
And, to conduct a war, nations need funding (a steady supply).
Currently, despite global sanctions, Russia’s administration is still capable of financing the “special military operation” – its conflict with Ukraine. However, economic strains are escalating: earnings from oil and gas are declining, and the budget deficit is increasing.
Even Putin acknowledges the existence of issues, referring to “imbalances” within the economy.
“In several areas, production output has not only failed to rise this year, but it has actually decreased,” Putin stated this week. “Are we content with such trends? No.”
The major unknown: at what juncture, if ever, will economic concerns begin to affect the Kremlin’s strategies on the battlefield?
