Steve Rosenberg: Putin steadfast as leaked strategy arrives in Moscow

There was a striking difference.

On Thursday, a delegation from the Pentagon visited Kyiv. They were discussing a draft proposal to resolve the conflict in Ukraine with President Zelensky.

Meanwhile, President Putin appeared on Russian state television that same day, donned in military gear, addressing his military leaders on continuing the fight.

“We have our assignments, our objectives,” declared the leader of the Kremlin. “The primary one is the absolute fulfillment of the goals of the special military operation.”

The Izvestia newspaper labeled President Putin’s trip to a command center “a message to America signaling that he is willing to negotiate regarding Ukraine, based on Russia’s conditions.”

This brings us back to the proposal for peace.

On Friday night, President Putin stated he had reviewed the US plan for settling the Ukraine situation.

Speaking at a Russian security council meeting in Moscow, he referred to the American suggestions as a “refined” iteration of the proposal discussed with Trump during the Alaska summit last August.

President Putin expressed his belief that these plans could serve as the foundation for a final peace agreement.

The 28-point proposal, which has been widely circulated and reported, emerged following a visit to the US by Kirill Dmitriev, the envoy for President Putin. He participated in three days of discussions in Miami with President Trump’s designated envoy Steve Witkoff.

According to drafts of the peace proposal, Ukraine would relinquish to Russia some areas of the Donbass that remain under Kyiv’s control; the Ukrainian military would be downsized, and Ukraine would pledge not to join NATO.

“The proficient actions of the Russian military ought to persuade Zelensky and his administration that it is advantageous to finalize a deal without delay,” President Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously informed reporters during a Kremlin conference call.

A proposal for peace does not necessarily equate to actual peace.

What happens if an agreement is not reached?

Commentators supportive of the Kremlin argue that, regardless of an agreement or not, Russia will emerge victorious.

“Everyone believed the notion of a peace agreement had become bogged down,” remarked the Russian media outlet Moskovsky Komsomolets. “But unexpectedly, a missile has emerged from this mire with a new, or rather a ‘revived’ peace initiative, reminiscent of the Alaska summit. It sprang forth like a jack-in-the-box.

“How far and how high will this missile soar? Will it crash, thwarted by Europe and Kyiv? Even if the launch is an inconsequential start, it is improbable that it will affect the overall momentum. The scales of power are tilting in favor of Russia.”

However, after nearly four years of conflict, Russia is feeling the strain as well. Since its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military has sustained significant casualties, and domestically, the economy is struggling. Russia’s budget deficit is expanding, and oil and gas revenues are declining.

“Russia’s industry is at a standstill or facing decline,” announced the broadsheet Nezavisimaya Gazeta this week.

It remains uncertain whether economic strains will alter President Putin’s strategy and convince him that it is time to conclude his described special operation: even on terms viewed as favorable by many to Moscow.

Many believe so. But not all.

Certain aspects of the peace proposal have not been well-received in Russia. Some reports indicate that Ukraine could receive security assurances modeled after NATO’s Article 5. This might obligate Western allies to regard any future Russian aggression against Ukraine as an attack on the entire transatlantic community, subsequently prompting a collective military response.

“This essentially amounts to Ukraine being part of NATO,” stated Moskovsky Komsomolets, “albeit without the stationing of bases and weaponry on its soil.”

The comprehensive details of the peace plan remain to be verified. We may be entering another phase of heightened diplomatic efforts.

At this moment, however, Russia’s conflict with Ukraine persists.