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Tuesday, April 7, 2026
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Economy

Universal Music shares increase following Pershing Square’s $64 billion acquisition bid

by admin April 7, 2026
written by admin

In this article

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Activist investor Pershing Square announced on Tuesday its intention to acquire Universal Music Group in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately 55.8 billion euros ($64.4 billion).

The proposal entails that shareholders will get a cumulative amount of 9.4 billion euros ($10.85 billion) in cash along with 0.77 shares of new stock for every share of UMG owned. This translates to a total value of 30.4 euros per share, representing a 78% premium over UMG’s closing share price from April 2, according to a statement from Pershing on Tuesday.

UMG shares were last observed trading 11% higher, having fallen 23% thus far this year.

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Universal Music shares year to date.

“Ever since UMG’s public offering, Sir Lucian Grainge and the management team have excelled in cultivating and continuously enhancing a premier artist roster while delivering solid business results,” stated Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman in Tuesday’s announcement.

“Nevertheless, UMG’s stock price has struggled due to a range of issues unrelated to its music business performance and crucially, all of these can be remedied with this deal.”

He pointed out several reasons for UMG’s lackluster performance, including uncertainty tied to Bollore Group’s 18% ownership, the delay in its U.S. listing, and “suboptimal” communication and engagement with shareholders.

As per the transaction’s terms, UMG will create a new merged entity with Pershing Square and will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, with expectations that the deal will be finalized by year-end.

Pershing has put forth a proposal for a board refresh, suggesting that Michael Ovitz, “one of the most recognized executives in global entertainment,” be appointed as chairman of UMG. Additionally, the proposals include that two more affiliates from Pershing Square join UMG’s board.

The transaction is also contingent upon a new employment contract and compensation package for UMG CEO Lucian Grainge.

UMG was separated from French media conglomerate Vivendi, with the controlling shareholder Vincent Bollore retaining a stake valued at around 5.9 billion euros at that time. The leading company behind numerous platinum-selling artists, such as Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift, was listed on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange in 2021, initially valued at 46 billion euros.

Stocks in Vivendi and Bollore rose by 11% and 6.3%, respectively, on Tuesday.

Billionaire Ackman has been advocating for UMG, the largest music company globally, to shift its primary listing to the U.S., contending that the stock is undervalued compared to its intrinsic worth and suffers from limited liquidity.

CNBC has already reached out to Bollore and UMG for comments. Vivendi has chosen not to respond to the news.

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April 7, 2026 0 comments
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JD Vance arriving in Hungary to support Orban's campaign for re-election
Global

JD Vance arriving in Hungary to support Orban’s campaign for re-election

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

Hungary, nearly solitary among EU nations, has resisted pressures from Brussels to reduce its reliance on Russian fossil fuels. In Washington, Orban further pledged to increase purchases of US liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with US nuclear technology and fuel. Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline from the east, and on Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline from the south.

April 6, 2026 0 comments
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Few indications of progress as Trump's Iran deadline approaches
Global

Few indications of progress as Trump’s Iran deadline approaches

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

He and his team responsible for national security commemorated their latest initiative – which involved orchestrating numerous aircraft and elite military forces, as well as utilizing deception and advanced technology. However, this endeavor, although impressive, aimed to prevent what Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth recognized as a “possible catastrophe”.

April 6, 2026 0 comments
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After court defeat, RFK Jr. assumes greater authority over CDC vaccine panel
Tech/AI

After court defeat, RFK Jr. assumes greater authority over CDC vaccine panel

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

The qualifications for membership also look very different between the existing charter and the renewal issued today. Under the current charter, ACIP members “shall be selected from authorities who are knowledgeable in the fields of immunization practices and public health, have expertise in the use of vaccines and other immunobiologic agents in clinical practice or preventive medicine, have expertise with clinical or laboratory vaccine research, or have expertise in assessment of vaccine efficacy and safety.” Those particular core requirements—expertise in immunization practice and vaccine science—were key to Murphy’s conclusion that Kennedy’s appointees were not fit to serve on the committee.

The renewal notice omits those specific requirements and instead emphasizes a “geographic balance” (representing various regions of the country) and a “balance of specialty areas.” It lists a broad array of specialties that cover a much wider range of medical and scientific disciplines and possibly beyond, including: “biostatistics, toxicology, immunology, epidemiology, pediatrics, internal medicine, family medicine, nursing, consumer issues, state and local health department perspective, academic perspective, public health perspective, etc.”

Suggested changes

Some of the alterations in the renewal may reflect pressure from an anti-vaccine organization aligned with Kennedy. That group, the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN), is led by Kennedy ally Del Bigtree and has been collaborating with Aaron Siri, an attorney who worked on Kennedy’s unsuccessful presidential bid and has brought numerous lawsuits seeking damages for alleged vaccine injuries. Siri is also known for petitioning the Food and Drug Administration to revoke the polio vaccine.

Last month, ICAN urged Kennedy to amend ACIP’s charter, and Siri’s law firm submitted a draft with track-changed edits outlining their preferred language for the new charter. The draft proposes that ACIP members have expertise in any area “deemed relevant by the Secretary,” and it explicitly requires that “At least two members shall have direct and substantial experience advocating for and/or treating those injured by vaccines.”

The Department of Health and Human Services did not answer Ars Technica’s questions about edits to the renewal notice or possible revisions to the CDC’s full charter text. Spokesperson Andrew Nixon, in an emailed statement, only said the renewal is part of “routine statutory requirements and do not signal any broader policy shift.”

April 6, 2026 0 comments
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From folding boxes to repairing vacuums, the GEN-1 robotics model achieves 99% reliability
Tech/AI

From folding boxes to repairing vacuums, the GEN-1 robotics model achieves 99% reliability

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

Robotics-focused machine-learning firm Generalist has unveiled GEN-1, a physical AI platform it claims “crosses into production-level success rates” across “a broad range of physical skills” that previously required the dexterity and muscle memory of human hands. Generalist also emphasizes the new model’s knack for reacting to disruptions by improvising fresh maneuvers and “connect[ing] ideas from different places in order to solve new problems.”

GEN-1 expands on Generalist’s earlier GEN-0 model, which the company promoted in November as a proof of concept for applying scaling laws to robotics training, demonstrating that more pretraining data and compute translate into better post-training performance. But whereas large language models have been able to process the trillions of words available online for training, robotic systems don’t have a comparable, easily accessible supply of high-quality examples of how humans manipulate objects.

To close that gap, Generalist has turned to “data hands”, wearable pincer devices that record micro-movements and visual cues as people perform manual tasks. The company says it has gathered more than half a million hours — and “petabytes of physical interaction data” — to train its physical model.

Take my money (from my wallet) (then put it back).

The outcome is an autonomous system precise enough to place cash into a wallet and versatile enough to fold laundry or sort auto parts. Generalist says the model now achieves 99 percent success rates on repetitive but delicate mechanical tasks — such as folding boxes, packing phones, and servicing robot vacuums — and operates at roughly three times the speed of GEN-0. The company adds that GEN-1 can reach these levels after only about an hour of adapting its pretraining to the “robot data” relevant to its specific robotic embodiment.

Recovering from mistakes

Historically, complex robotic systems have tended to rely on precisely preprogrammed motions or be trained to specialize in a single task with little variation. What Generalist says sets GEN-1 apart is a single model’s ability to improvise from prior experience and handle disruptions naturally, even when those situations are “well outside the training distribution.”

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Trump administration concludes Medicare Advantage payment rate better than anticipated, providing support to health insurers.
Economy

Trump administration concludes Medicare Advantage payment rate better than anticipated, providing support to health insurers.

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

In this piece

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Mehmet Oz, head of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, addresses an event held by the Action for Progress Coalition at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 2, 2026.
Al Drago | Reuters

On Monday, the Trump administration confirmed an increase in payment rates for privately managed Medicare plans for 2027 that exceeded earlier estimates, benefiting health insurance stocks.

The average payments for Medicare Advantage are set to rise by 2.48%, translating to over $13 billion, in 2027, as reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Back in January, the Trump administration suggested a minor payment rate rise of 0.09%, leading to a drop in insurer shares managing those plans.

Stocks of UnitedHealth and CVS Health surged over 9% in after-hours trading on Monday. Meanwhile, Humana‘s shares rose by approximately 12%.

“Medicare Advantage and Part D must be beneficial for those who depend on them,” stated CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz in a statement. “These revisions make coverage more affordable and guarantee that patients derive genuine value from their policies.”

The closely monitored government payment rate specifies how much insurers are allowed to charge for monthly premiums and the benefits included in their plans, and ultimately, it influences their profitability.

Medicare Advantage is a privately managed health insurance program contracted through Medicare. Over half of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in such programs, attracted by reduced monthly premiums and additional benefits that traditional Medicare does not cover, according to the health policy research organization KFF.

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The single data point that might truly illuminate your role and artificial intelligence
Tech/AI

The single data point that might truly illuminate your role and artificial intelligence

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

This piece first appeared in The Algorithm, our weekly newsletter on AI. To receive stories like this in your inbox before anyone else, enroll here.

In the realm of Silicon Valley, a job apocalypse spurred by AI is regarded as inevitable. The atmosphere is so bleak that a societal impacts researcher at Anthropic, in response to a request for more hopeful outlooks regarding AI’s future, mentioned a possible recession in the near future and a “collapse of the early-career ladder.” Her more outspoken peer Dario Amodei, the company’s CEO, has described AI as “a general labor substitute for humans” capable of performing all jobs within five years. And those sentiments are not exclusive to Anthropic, obviously.

Consequently, these discussions have understandably left many employees feeling anxious (and are likely fueling support for initiatives to entirely halt the development of data centers, some of which gained momentum last week). This anxiety is not alleviated by politicians, none of whom have presented a clear strategy for what follows.

Even economists who have warned that AI has not yet resulted in job losses and may not lead to a crash are starting to acknowledge that it could uniquely and unprecedentedly affect our work patterns.

Alex Imas, from the University of Chicago, is one such economist. He conveyed two key points during our conversation on Friday morning: a frank evaluation that our predictive tools are quite deficient, and a “call to action” for economists to begin gathering the one type of data that could facilitate a plan for addressing AI in the labor market.

Regarding our inadequate tools: consider that any occupation consists of various individual tasks. For instance, a part of a real estate agent’s role is to inquire about what type of property clients wish to purchase. The US government has documented thousands of these tasks in a vast catalogue initiated in 1998 and continually updated. This was the data that OpenAI researchers utilized in December to assess how “vulnerable” a job is to AI (for example, they determined that a real estate agent is 28% vulnerable). Then in February, Anthropic leveraged this data in analyzing millions of Claude conversations to identify the tasks people are actively employing its AI for and the points of overlap.

However, understanding AI vulnerability in tasks leads to a deceptive comprehension of how at risk a specific job may be, according to Imas. “Vulnerability alone is a completely ineffective metric for forecasting displacement,” he asserted.

Indeed, it is revealing in the most dire scenario—for an occupation where virtually every task could be performed by AI without any human supervision. If an AI model can accomplish all those tasks for less than what you’re being compensated—which is not assured, as reasoning models and agentic AI can accumulate significant costs—and perform them effectively, that job is likely to vanish, asserts Imas. This reflects the frequently cited case of the elevator operator from years past; perhaps today’s equivalent is a customer service agent solely tasked with handling phone call triage.

Yet, for the majority of occupations, the situation is not as straightforward. The specifics are crucial as well: while some jobs may face ominous prospects, discerning how and when these changes will occur is challenging when solely considering vulnerability.

Take coding as an example. A person creating high-quality dating applications, for instance, may utilize AI coding tools to produce in one day what previously required three days. This boosts productivity for the worker. The employer, maintaining the same financial outlay, can now yield more output. Consequently, will the employer seek to hire more employees or fewer? 

This is the question that Imas argues should keep any policymaker awake at night, as the answer will vary across industries. And we are navigating in uncertainty. 

In the coder’s instance, such efficiencies allow dating applications to reduce prices. (A skeptic might anticipate companies merely pocketing the profits, yet in a competitive marketplace, they risk being undercut if they do.) These lower prices will invariably stimulate some surge in demand for the applications. But to what extent? If millions more individuals desire it, the company might expand and ultimately recruit more developers to fulfill this demand. However, if demand hardly increases—perhaps those who don’t currently use premium dating apps will still not want them even at a lower price—fewer coders will be necessary, resulting in layoffs.

Regularly applying this hypothetical across every job with tasks that AI can perform yields the most critical economic inquiry of our era: the particulars of price elasticity, or the extent to which demand for something shifts when its price shifts. This is the second aspect of what Imas highlighted last week: we currently lack this data throughout the economy. However, we could. 

We possess figures for grocery products like cereal and milk, Imas notes, because the University of Chicago collaborates with supermarkets to gather data from their price scanners. Yet we lack such figures for tutors, web developers, or dietitians (all professions identified as having “exposure” to AI, by the way). Or at least not in a manner that’s been extensively compiled or made accessible to researchers; sometimes it’s distributed among private companies or consultancies. 

“We require, akin to a Manhattan Project, to gather this information,” Imas states. Moreover, it’s not solely necessary for occupations that could evidently be impacted by AI now: “Fields not yet exposed will inevitably become exposed in the future, warranting a tracking of these statistics across the entire economy.”

Acquiring all this data would demand time and resources, but Imas argues that it’s valuable; it would provide economists with the first genuine insight into how our AI-driven future could evolve and offer policymakers an opportunity to devise a strategy for it.

April 6, 2026 0 comments
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This Safari Lodge in Kenya Cultivates More Than 80 Varieties of Fruits and Vegetables On-Site
Lifestyle

This Safari Lodge in Kenya Cultivates More Than 80 Varieties of Fruits and Vegetables On-Site

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

With Hotels With Great Taste, we’re unveiling the “special ingredient” that hotels utilize to craft unforgettable, significant culinary moments for their visitors.

While visiting Sirikoi Lodge, I opened my cottage door one afternoon to discover Nditu, the orphaned female giraffe who considers Sirikoi and its vicinity her territory, nibbling on some trees merely steps away.

While it might seem a bit of a cliché to label a hotel as enchanting, I can’t think of a more fitting term to encapsulate the experience of visiting this Kenyan lodge. On a typical morning, you might spot a herd of elephants stopping by for a drink just a few feet from where you’re relishing your breakfast, or a pair of impalas frolicking across the property.

Despite being situated next to a watering hole within Lewa Wildlife Conservancy’s 93,000 acres of natural beauty, Sirikoi is a place where you truly feel at home, even as you encounter views that leave you rubbing your eyes in astonishment. The stunning grounds, bi-daily game drives, incredible wildlife encounters, and savanna sunsets were all absolutely breathtaking.

I was equally enchanted by Sirikoi’s culinary program, much of which centers around the more than 80 fruits, vegetables, and herbs cultivated in the property’s organic gardens. Head chef Zachary Macharia collaborates closely with head gardener George Domiano to define the lodge’s culinary philosophy, resulting in fresh, wholesome meals deeply rooted in seasonality. Picture farm-fresh eggs transformed into perfectly cooked omelets or scrambles, lunches composed of a vibrant array of salads, and straightforward dinners where the ingredients take center stage.

Both Macharia and Domiano have dedicated over 15 years to the lodge. Domiano’s experience in regenerative agriculture and organic farming brought him to Sirikoi, which had an established garden that cofounder Sue Roberts was enthusiastic to expand and convert to a 100% organic model. Advocating regenerative methods such as zero tillage farming, Domiano joined the team in 2011 and took on the role of head gardener in 2012. Under his guidance, the garden has thrived and now provides the bulk of Sirikoi’s produce, from the citrus and passion fruit served during breakfast to the broccoli and potatoes accompanying dinner.

The region’s climate is particularly favorable for cultivating most fruits and vegetables year-round. Many plants that would typically struggle to grow in the local soil are nurtured through grafting, a technique wherein the root of one plant supports the growth of another.

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JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon highlights dangers in geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and private markets in his yearly letter.
Economy

JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon highlights dangers in geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and private markets in his yearly letter.

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

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Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, addresses attendees at the Reagan National Defense Forum hosted at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, on December 6, 2025.
Jonathan Alcorn | Reuters

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is urging a renewed commitment to American principles as his bank manages geopolitical instability, a fragile economy, and the groundbreaking effects of artificial intelligence.

In his letter to shareholders released on Monday, Dimon acknowledged the nation’s 250th anniversary as “an excellent opportunity to recommit ourselves to the ideals that shaped this amazing nation — freedom, liberty, and opportunity.”

“The hurdles we face are considerable. While the list is extensive, prominent among them are the ongoing horrors of war and violence in Ukraine, the current conflict in Iran, and broader conflicts in the Middle East, along with terror threats and increasing geopolitical strains, particularly concerning China,” Dimon remarked. “Even in challenging times, we trust that America will continue to do what it always has — rely on the values that have characterized our unique nation and upheld our status as a leader in the free world.”

Dimon, who leads the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, is one of the most vocal U.S. business leaders. His annual letter serves not just as a record of his company’s performance, but also as a narrative on global issues.

In the letter, he highlighted difficulties including international conflicts, persistent inflation, turmoil in private markets, and what he described as “ineffective bank regulations.”

Dimon mentioned that regulations established post the 2008 financial crisis “achieved some positive outcomes … but they also fostered a disjointed, sluggish system with costly, overlapping, and excessive regulations — some of which weakened the financial framework and hindered productive lending.”

He specifically pointed out the adverse effects of capital and liquidity rules, the current design of the Federal Reserve’s stress testing, and a “poorly managed” process at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Dimon also expressed mixed feelings about JPMorgan’s response to recent proposals regarding the Basel 3 Endgame and a global systemically important bank (GSIB) surcharge — released by U.S. regulators last month.

“While it was encouraging to see that the latest proposals for the Basel 3 Endgame (B3E) and GSIB sought to lessen the capital hike from the 2023 recommendations, some components are frankly illogical,” Dimon stated.

The CEO noted that the cumulative proposed surcharges of roughly 5% would require the bank to maintain “up to 50% additional capital for most loans to U.S. consumers and businesses compared to a large non-GSIB bank for the same loan classes.”

“It’s simply not fair, and it’s un-American,” he asserted.

On trade and geopolitics

Dimon pointed to geopolitical tensions as the main danger facing his bank, specifically the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and their repercussions on commodities and global markets — describing war as “a realm of uncertainty.”

“The results of current geopolitical situations could very well be the critical element determining how the future global economic order develops,” he noted. “However, it may also not play a significant role.”

He also mentioned a “realignment of economic relationships globally” prompted by U.S. trade strategies. President Donald Trump has made tariffs a focal point of his second term, imposing increased duties on various trading partners and import categories.

“The trade conflicts are far from resolved, and it is reasonable to anticipate that many countries are evaluating how and with whom they should establish trade partnerships,” Dimon stated. “While some of this is essential for national security and resilience, which are critical, predicting the long-term consequences remains complex.”

On private markets

Dimon also discussed the recent turmoil in private markets, as anxieties surrounding loans extended to software companies lead to substantial redemption demands at private credit funds.

“In general, private credit lacks transparency or strict valuation ‘marks’ for their loans — this heightens the likelihood that investors will choose to exit if they anticipate the market will worsen — even if actual realized losses remain largely unchanged,” Dimon noted.

The executive indicated that actual losses are already exceeding acceptable levels relative to the market conditions.

“Regardless of how this situation unfolds, it is likely that insurance regulators will mandate stricter assessments or markdowns, which will probably lead to calls for additional capital,” he added.

On AI

Dimon reiterated on Monday that the speed of AI integration is unprecedented compared to past technologies. He indicated that while its application will be “transformational,” it is uncertain how the AI revolution will play out.

“Overall, investing in AI is not a speculative fad; instead, it promises considerable advantages. Nonetheless, at this moment, we cannot foresee the ultimate beneficiaries and casualties in AI-oriented sectors,” Dimon explained.

“We will not ignore the implications. We will implement AI, similar to all technologies, to enhance our service for our customers (and employees),” he outlined.

JPMorgan has been leading among Wall Street firms in deploying AI throughout its operations. Last year, JPMorgan’s Chief Analytics Officer Derek Waldron provided CNBC with an early showcase of how it’s utilizing agentic AI to expedite tasks and enhance outcomes for clients and stakeholders.

In February, Dimon mentioned that AI was transforming JPMorgan’s workforce and that the bank was planning “major redeployment initiatives” for staff.

“We have concentrated on some of the ‘certain and anticipated’ as well as some ‘uncertain known’ occurrences,” he stated. “However, significant tech transitions such as AI invariably have secondary and tertiary effects that can profoundly influence society. … We ought to be vigilant for such transformations as well.”

— CNBC’s Leslie Picker and Ritika Shah contributed to this report.

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Trump's ultimatum regarding Iran and indications of a potential agreement leave investors in suspense.
Economy

Trump’s ultimatum regarding Iran and indications of a potential agreement leave investors in suspense.

by admin April 6, 2026
written by admin

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U.S. President Donald Trump delivers a prime-time address to the nation in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.
Alex Brandon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Traders are stuck between preparing for a rapid agreement that concludes the conflict and a major escalation that could cause oil prices and bond yields to rise even more as they enter a holiday-thinned trading session.

President Donald Trump put forth a harsh warning on Sunday, telling Iran it would be “living in Hell” unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened by Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET, labeling it “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day combined.”

In a separate Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump expressed optimism that there was a “good chance” for an agreement to be made by Monday.

Mixed signals have created a week in which investors must prepare for sharply differing possibilities.

Meanwhile, Iran has dismissed Trump’s recent threats, stating that the vital waterway would only completely reopen once Tehran is reimbursed for the war’s damages, as it continued strikes throughout the Gulf over the weekend, including at Kuwait’s oil headquarters.

“Markets are anxious, as time is short and the possibilities are either a truce or escalation,” commented Rob Subbaraman, head of global macro research at Nomura. Trump’s rhetoric, however, indicated a sense of urgency from the White House to conclude the conflict, according to Subbaraman, as investors worked to “hedge against the risk of escalation.”

Trump has been oscillating between proclaiming talks with Iran as fruitful and imminent for a peace agreement, and indicating his willingness to increase military action against the Islamic Republic. He has consistently pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

This inconsistent messaging has resulted in market fluctuations accompanied by unstable oil trading. The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week, marking its strongest weekly gains since November as investors capitalized on the dip in hopes of a diplomatic solution. The Cboe Volatility Index surged from below 20 prior to the war to approximately 24 last week.

“Trump’s aggressive remarks [over the weekend] align with his strategy: unpredictable, headline-driven, and aimed at applying maximum pressure swiftly,” stated Mohit Mirpuri, an equity fund manager at SGMC Capital.

“Markets will have to adjust to this type of policymaking for the foreseeable future while he remains in office,” Mirpuri added.

Stagflation concerns persist

The prolonged conflict and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz risk plunging the globe into one of its most extreme energy crises in history. Analysts warn that even a diplomatic breakthrough may not provide immediate relief to markets.

Brent crude prices surged to $109.77 per barrel on Monday, approximately 50% higher since the conflict commenced on February 28. U.S. West Texas Intermediate has skyrocketed by 66% and was trading at $111.2 as of 11 p.m. ET.

Despite a slight increase in the last few days, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — which previously facilitated nearly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and one-fifth of its liquefied natural gas before the war — remained 95% lower than levels prior to the war.

“Regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open, the damage to confidence and supply chains has already occurred — normalcy doesn’t just return instantly,” Mirpuri remarked. “Markets will likely be sensitive to headlines, with sharp fluctuations as narratives evolve.”

The OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May will hardly alleviate oil supply issues, given that the war has curtailed production and shipments from several of the globe’s largest crude exporters.

Subbaraman noted the war has “persisted long enough to create serious inflation spikes worldwide,” cautioning that “if the conflict escalates from this point, the inflation shock may quickly turn into a growth shock, leading to demand destruction and outright stagflation.”

Bond yields: an overlooked risk

The fixed-income sector is discreetly adjusting the inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.362% on Monday, up from 3.962% before the conflict began, hovering near the highest levels since mid-2025, as investors reduced their expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

“One of the significant, yet underestimated risks is the shift in government bond yields,” mentioned Mirpuri. “Should this geopolitical shock translate into lasting inflation expectations, yields could rise again, tightening financial conditions at a moment when markets are already vulnerable.”

Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni indicated that the fixed-income markets have been readjusting government securities to reflect the swiftly deteriorating inflation outlook, with “bond vigilantes taking matters into their own hands and tightening credit conditions.”

“Now we cannot dismiss the possibility of a bear market or even a recession. It all hinges on how long the strait remains closed,” Yardeni cautioned, compounding economic strains from the disruption in global energy flows.

Volatility driven by headlines

As investors brace themselves for Tuesday’s deadline, markets are anticipated to remain extremely volatile as they attempt to interpret every signal from Washington and Tehran.

Markets in Japan and Korea saw gains on Monday as Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and a coalition of regional mediators were negotiating terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way for a permanent resolution to the war, although the report indicated that the likelihood of a partial agreement before the deadline was slim. Indian benchmark indexes were trading lower.

“We are [currently] in an event-driven market where the risk of headlines overshadows intraday movements, and positioning must consider binary outcomes,” remarked Hiroki Shimazu, chief strategist at MCP Asset Management.

He anticipates that both parties will lean towards a de-escalation facilitated by Oman, in the form of “a subtle reduction in strike frequency,” rather than a definitive resolution. “We are in an extended stalemate phase rather than nearing a clean solution,” Shimazu remarked, predicting a prolonged period of volatility in the upcoming weeks.

Investors are also looking forward to a series of vital economic reports from the U.S. this week. The February personal consumption expenditures index — the Fed’s favored gauge for inflation — is scheduled for Thursday and will provide an initial indication of whether the oil shock is influencing prices in the world’s largest economy.

Spot gold, which has lost about 12% since the war began, trading at $4,672.03 per ounce, faces a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and geopolitical pressures from a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. A strengthening dollar has made gold priced in dollars less accessible for holders of other currencies, while higher yields have lessened the appeal of the non-yielding metal.

“Immediate uncertainty is evidently very high, and for the majority of investors, it’s just a matter of waiting and observing at this point,” stated Chetan Seth, APAC equity strategist at Nomura.

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