Based on projected greenhouse gas emissions, the report puts annual losses to conventional markets at about $1.66 trillion by 2100.
Launched in 2021, the study united experts from several fields — fisheries specialists, coral reef scientists, biologists, and climate economists. They evaluated the downstream costs of climate change in four primary sectors—corals, mangroves, fisheries, and seaports—quantifying impacts ranging from direct market losses due to smaller catches and reduced marine trade to declines in ocean-based recreational industries.
The team also assigned dollar values to what economists call non-use values. “Something can hold value because it makes the world feel more livable, meaningful, or worth protecting, even if we never use it directly,” Bastien-Olvera said, noting the economic significance of ecosystem enjoyment and the cultural losses caused by climate change. “Most people will never see a coral reef during a full-moon spawning event or watch a deep-sea jellyfish glow in total darkness. Yet many still care deeply that these things exist.”
The study warns that island economies—where seafood is a larger part of nutrition—will bear disproportionate economic and health burdens from ocean warming and acidification. “The countries that have the most responsibility for causing climate change and the most capacity to fix it are not generally the same countries that will experience the largest or most near-term damages,” said Kate Ricke, co-author and climate professor at UCSD’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. Including ocean impacts in social cost of carbon estimates reveals heightened risks of illness and death in low-income countries facing growing nutritional deficiencies.
Despite the magnitude of the findings, Bastien-Olvera and Ricke are hopeful the results will spur international action. “I hope that the high value of ‘blueSCC’ can motivate further investment in adaptation and resilience for ocean systems,” Ricke said, using the term for the ocean-based social cost of carbon and pointing to opportunities to invest in coral reef and mangrove restoration projects.
Bastien-Olvera also says centering the framework on oceans acknowledges the longstanding conservation practices of coastal communities, marine scientists, and Indigenous peoples. “For a long time, climate economics treated ocean values as if they were worth zero,” he said. “This is a first step toward finally acknowledging how wrong that was.”
This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, non-partisan news organization that covers climate, energy, and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter here.
