What’s in store for Cuba as Trump tightens the noose while the island depletes its jet fuel?

Cuba’s communist leadership is encountering its greatest challenge since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

President Donald Trump has intensified the pressure on the island since the military operation on Jan. 3, aimed at capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who has been a longstanding ally of the Cuban regime. Cuba reported that 32 of its citizens were killed during the assault.

Trump has effectively severed Cuba’s access to Venezuelan oil, branding its leadership as “an unusual and extraordinary threat” and has vowed to impose tariffs on any country that supplies oil to it.

President Miguel Díaz-Canel criticized this action, asserting: “Surrender is not an option.” He indicated that the government is willing to engage in discussions with Washington, but “without pressure or preconditions.”

The nation has warned that international airlines will no longer be able to refuel on its soil due to fuel shortages. Amid a deepening economic crisis, Cuba’s government has recently introduced rationing measures to safeguard essential services and manage fuel supplies for critical sectors.

The initiative reportedly entails limitations on fuel sales, the closure of certain tourist establishments, reduced school hours, and a shortened workweek at state-owned enterprises to four days, from Monday to Thursday.

“The current context in Cuba is as dire as it has been since the 1990s, when Cuba suddenly had to exist without the backing of the Eastern Bloc,” Par Kumaraswami, professor of Latin American Studies at the U.K.’s University of Nottingham, conveyed to CNBC via email.

Trump’s tariff warnings have served as a deterrent for many countries, Kumaraswami remarked.

While Mexico has dispatched humanitarian aid, it has halted oil deliveries to maintain its relationship with Havana and avoid Trump’s tariffs.

Kumaraswami noted that there is “certainly frustration regarding daily struggles,” but also that “many Cubans are determined to resist threats against their national sovereignty, and a new wave of patriotism has surfaced.”

Air Canada has since suspended all flights to Cuba due to the fuel depletion, though the airline stated Monday that it will repatriate around 3,000 customers currently in the nation within the next few days.

Tourism represents a vital revenue stream for Cuba’s financially constrained government, and the island is a favored winter getaway for Canadian tourists.

In contrast to past crises, Cuba’s regime lacks external allies capable of providing assistance, according to Robert Munks, head of Americas research at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.

“Raising the stakes, the US has also restricted Cuba’s access to hard currency and pressured Nicaragua to terminate visa-free travel for Cubans,” Munks informed CNBC via email.

The administration’s commitment to enhance the adoption of scarce renewable energy sources appears to be “too little, too late,” Munks remarked. He further asserted that civil unrest is a possibility, given that the island’s domestic energy production is significantly below what is necessary to sustain basic operations.

“An accelerating breakdown of basic services will exert tremendous stress on the regime to seek a negotiated resolution,” Munks commented.

He indicated that “the odds are shortening” regarding Díaz-Canel being removed from power in the upcoming months in a Maduro-like managed transition, but Munks suggested it is more likely that “the regime will attempt to muddle through” until the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Cuba’s declining oil reserves prompted the United Nations to issue a warning about a potential humanitarian “collapse” last week.

“The Secretary-General is deeply concerned about the humanitarian conditions in Cuba, which will deteriorate, and could collapse if its oil requirements go unmet,” remarked UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.

Cuba’s emergency protocols should be viewed as a crucial challenge for the BRICS coalition of developing nations, as stated by Helen Yaffe, a Cuba specialist and professor of Latin American political economy at the University of Glasgow, Scotland.

“This is arguably BRICS’s most significant test… If BRICS cannot shield, support, and rally around a member, then what value does it hold?” Yaffe told CNBC over the phone.

Cuba received “partner country” status within the BRICS group in January of last year, strengthening its connections with Brazil, Russia, and China. Each of these three nations has sought to assist Cuba in recent days.

A representative from China’s foreign ministry stated on Tuesday that Beijing “strongly opposes the inhumane actions that strip the Cuban people of their right to survive and develop.” They added that China will, “as always,” aim to extend support to Cuba.

Russia has described the fuel situation in Havana as “truly critical” and indicated that U.S. efforts to apply further pressure on the nation are causing numerous challenges.

“The Cuban government will not capitulate,” Yaffe stated. “The reality is that [the U.S. will] continue to exert pressure while the Cubans remain resilient, resulting in a great deal of needless suffering.”

She concluded: “As a historian, I acknowledge it is quite presumptuous for historians to forecast the future but we can observe trends — and I assure you that a similar scenario unfolded in the early 1990s when many believed Cuba would falter, yet they persevered.”