“Large merged catalogs encourage firms to concentrate on established intellectual property since it travels well, can be merchandised, and lowers marketing risk,” said Robert Rosenberg, a partner at the New York law firm Moses Singer who specializes in intellectual property, entertainment, technology, and data law.
Rosenberg also anticipates a “tilt toward” live events, sports, and unscripted programming “for retention” should HBO Max be sold.
In the near term, Rory Gooderick, research manager at analyst firm Ampere Analysis, predicted that WBD will be “cautious when greenlighting new large-scale projects until” the deal is completed.
Beyond the possible HBO Max sale, additional merger activity might push streaming platforms away from their initial pitch of providing braver, more idiosyncratic programming.
As consolidation progresses, “sticky content,” such as procedurals, reality series, and “comfort TV that drives long viewing sessions,” will become a priority for mainstream subscription-based streaming services, particularly as they lean more on ad-supported tiers, Goodman predicted.
A more stable future?
The coming year will be pivotal for streaming and have enduring effects on subscribers. We’ve outlined several downsides, but there may be an upside. Although more upheaval is possible, there’s hope we’ll begin to see a path toward steadier streaming choices.
Subscribers can’t directly prevent mergers, price increases, or changes to libraries. However, as services such as Netflix and Disney+ aim to be one-stop destinations with vast catalogs, other platforms have a chance to sharpen their niches and differentiate themselves by offering offbeat, unexpected, and rare content at more affordable price points.
As the market calms, streamers should remember how much variety matters to subscribers. According to Bill Michels, chief product officer at Gracenote, Nielsen’s content data business unit:
There will be some consolidation. But the [connected TV] environment, including FAST and [direct-to-consumer] channels, still offers more than enough video variety for viewers, so the main challenge will be matching content to the proper audience. Audience engagement rests on strong content. Audience retention relies on ensuring viewers always have something to watch.
