Black Friday has historically been characterized by huge gatherings, unbelievable discounts, and fervent shoppers eager to fight, scratch, and claw for the season’s best bargains. However, current trends indicate that retail’s most significant holiday has changed significantly.
Stores are now opening later, pedestrian traffic remains stagnant, online sales are increasing, and, in an era where Black Friday kicks off as early as September, consumers are cautious, questioning if the deals they find are truly worthwhile.
“The authenticity of the event is nearly nonexistent,” remarked Mark Cohen, former CEO of Sears Canada and past director of retail studies at Columbia Business School. “Once upon a time, a Black Friday price was unbeatable and would not appear again. Nowadays, from a consumer perspective, promotional prices seem to improve the closer you get to the holidays.”
Although Black Friday still signifies an important day for numerous retailers and remains one of the most anticipated shopping days of the year, it is no longer solely associated with in-store experiences. While millions of consumers are predicted to visit shopping centers, large stores, and specialty shops on Friday, an even larger number are expected to choose home shopping via their devices.
This signifies a strategic shift for retailers who had previously relied heavily on Black Friday, including Walmart, Target and Macy’s. Some, like Kohl’s, are beginning their holiday promotions earlier. Others, including Walmart, are spreading out their promotional events — with one taking place in mid-November, another throughout the holiday period, and a final special event on Cyber Monday. Many others are choosing to remain closed on Thanksgiving but keep online deals active during the holiday.
“I still remember standing in lines outside stores waiting for those specific deals that every retailer would promote,” stated Denish Shah, chair and professor of marketing at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business. “Now it spans weeks over multiple days, and most consumers are doing it from home via online shopping.”
For the past six years, online shopping on Black Friday has outpaced in-store shopping, with foot traffic relatively stagnant following a surge after Covid, per data from the National Retail Federation and Placer.ai, an analytics company that uses anonymized data from mobile devices to gauge overall traffic to various locations.
Since 2021, visits to stores on Black Friday have consistently exceeded 50% of the yearly daily average, but data from Placer.ai indicates that the foot traffic on the day after Thanksgiving isn’t significantly increasing.
From 2023 to 2025, fewer millennials and Generation X consumers plan to make most of their purchases on Black Friday. The data from the Bank of America Institute shows that amounts are largely unchanged for Gen Z and baby boomer shoppers during this timeframe.
Simultaneously, spending during the Turkey 5 — the shopping days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday — has dropped for two consecutive years, according to the NRF. Spending decreased nearly 13% from 2019 to 2024.
This decline is predicted to continue this year, with consumers expecting to spend 4% less on average during the Turkey 5, as per a recent Deloitte survey.
“Retailers will still showcase a day of highlights, whether it involves doorbusters, … additional promotions, etc.,” said Tiffany Yeh, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group’s consumer practice. “However, it will be more subdued.”
How Black Friday lost its appeal
When the modern interpretation of Black Friday surged in popularity during the 1980s, it necessitated a full year of preparation, Cohen explained.
“The challenge was convincing a vendor to provide a massive discount so you could create an incredibly attractive offer for consumers that would benefit you for the rest of the holiday season,” he recounted. “This involved an immense effort.”
Retailers needed to select the ideal product, set the right price, and ensure competitors were unaware of their promotional moves. They also had to guarantee adequate inventory to sell out, but not so early that it would incite chaos.
However, as Black Friday gained traction, retailers began to prolong the shopping experience to maximize their most significant sales advantage of the year. Initially, stores started to open earlier on Friday mornings, followed by openings on Thanksgiving, and ultimately, promotions began on the day prior. As consumers grew to expect discounts on a wider range of items, promotions expanded across all departments.
“In essence,” Cohen stated, “to maintain interest, they started to water it down.”
As discounts permeated throughout stores, managing inventory and staffing became increasingly complex, prompting retailers to start promotional activity even earlier, Yeh noted.
“It’s always been a challenge to significantly ramp up staffing for a brief period,” she mentioned. “If it’s just for one day, people might not be inclined to commit, whereas a longer season encourages more willingness to hire and train necessary team members.”
Simultaneously, consumer behaviors began to evolve in the background.
Are Black Friday bargains still valuable?
Online shopping had steadily increased over 20 years, but during the Covid-19 pandemic, its growth surged dramatically. Presently, retailers do not need to orchestrate grand in-person events for Black Friday, as online sales are progressively eclipsing in-store transactions.
Extending Black Friday into a season-long event also allows consumers to stagger their spending, stated Shah.
“November and December are distinct pay periods for many consumers,” he explained. “The ability to spread expenditures across two pay periods instead of one makes a difference.”
Naturally, there is ongoing debate regarding the actual efficacy of discounts on Black Friday, particularly in a struggling economy where retailers are heavily relying on promotions to boost sales while increasing prices to counter tariffs.
“Widespread discounting” throughout the sector — before, during, and after the holiday shopping period — has resulted in many consumers feeling “cynical” about promotions in general, remarked Sonia Lapinsky, head of consulting firm AlixPartners’ global fashion division. Some deals this holiday season might also be masking price hikes, effectively reverting prices back to what they were prior to being raised, according to Lapinsky.
“They hold the ability to shop around and seek these discounts, yet there’s a growing sense of distrust,” Lapinsky remarked. “People are fatigued from this, creating a lack of confidence that they are truly obtaining value.”
For instance, brands like Gap, Levi Strauss and Under Armour initiated their Black Friday promotions on Thanksgiving, and the offers were similar to those provided earlier in the season.
“The entire concept of generating urgency has become somewhat trivial and disappeared,” Cohen noted. “Much like numerous headlines promising enticing deals, the reality is that many offers are deceptive.”
