The Strait of Hormuz is once again highlighted as potential U.S. intervention in Iran increases the threat of Tehran disrupting one of the globe’s most vital energy chokepoints.
U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing various options against Iran, as reported by multiple media sources on Sunday, amid its crackdown on internal protests.
Industry experts warned that military confrontation could lead Iran to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, through which almost a third of the world’s maritime crude flows.
“A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global oil and gas crisis,” particularly considering the “desperate and ill-advised measures the current Iranian regime may resort to” if they perceive themselves increasingly cornered with their power and lives at stake, stated Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.
Approximately 13 million barrels per day of crude moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, representing around 31% of global seaborne crude flows, data from market intelligence company Kpler indicated. The threat of the waterway being obstructed also emerged during heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran in June of the previous year.
Since Iran’s production and exports significantly exceed those of Venezuela, the global market would certainly experience more significant repercussions, noted Muyu Xu, senior crude analyst at Kpler, adding that Chinese refiners might need to look for alternatives.
In contrast to Venezuela, any military engagement involving Iran presents “materially higher risks” due to the volume of crude and refined product supply and transit exposure, remarked Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, who anticipates a 70% chance of selective U.S. strikes on Iran.
In a severe escalation scenario, where tankers are unable to pass through or energy infrastructure is compromised, oil prices could spike by double digits, analysts warned.
“The anxiety over potential closure will drive oil prices up by a few dollars per barrel, but it is the complete blockade of the Strait that may lead to a $10 to $20 per barrel increase,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Kavonic foresees an “immediate surge in oil prices” following any U.S. attack on Iran, though this may ease with signs that the disruption is temporary.
Global benchmark Brent recently traded around $63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were stable at $59 per barrel.
Most analysts emphasize that any disastrous outcomes remain low-probability events.
While Iran can always threaten to shut the Strait of Hormuz, they might be disinclined to do so due to the complexity of regional power dynamics and may not possess the capacity to fully close it, given U.S. Navy patrols in the vicinity, noted Kpler’s Xu.
Even in scenarios where Iran attempts a temporary disruption, such as harassing tankers or briefly blocking transit, the actual impact on supply would be limited.
Kpler evaluates the oil market is presently leaning towards oversupply, with approximately 2.5 million barrels per day of surplus supply anticipated in January and over 3 million barrels per day in February and March.
Moreover, any blockade would likely invoke a display of force from the U.S. and allies to restore flow, Kavonic remarked.
Yet, experts cautioned against making direct comparisons between Iran and Venezuela, where the Trump administration applied sanctions and seizures to pressure the Venezuelan regime before capturing President Nicolás Maduro.
It would be quite challenging for the U.S. to implement a strategy toward Iran akin to that with Venezuela, because Iran is much farther from U.S. territory and the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is significantly more intricate than in Latin America, Xu explained. “Furthermore, Trump’s current priority seems to be reinforcing U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere.”
Lipow agreed, stating a Venezuela-style approach in Iran would more likely involve sanctions and enforcement rather than military occupation or assaults on infrastructure.
