1. Executive Summary
Today’s Dominant Driver: AI infrastructure sentiment remains fragile after CoreWeave’s guidance cut and SoftBank’s $NVDA exit. Tonight’s $CSCO results will decide if the AI capex slowdown is temporary or systemic
Key Opportunity: Watch $GFS earnings for confirmation of real AI demand — a beat could trigger a short-term rebound across semiconductors ($AMD, $NVDA, $SMH). $TDG offers a defensive rebound setup amid value rotation, while $TME could revive confidence in China’s consumer story
Primary Risk: A weak $CSCO print or cautious AI guidance could deepen semiconductor losses ($AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC) and pressure growth stocks. Geopolitical tensions over rare-earth exports also pose supply risks for U.S. defense and chip industries
Actionable Headline: AI buildout faces stress test tonight. $CSCO and $GFS results will set the tone for tech and semiconductors; strong beats may flip sentiment and spark a near-term recovery rally
2. The Macro Pulse: Rates & The Economic Calendar
10:00 AM ET – MBA Mortgage Applications (Weekly) (Exp: –1.0%; Prior: –2.1%)
> 0% (growth): Mildly positive for housing ($XHB, $ITB) and homebuilders ($DHI, $LEN)
< –3% (decline): Slight negative for housing, but markets usually ignore unless the swing exceeds ±5%
3. Earnings & Corporate Action Intel
A. Key Earnings Today (After Close)
$GFS (GlobalFoundries), Watch for:
· Q3 earnings likely to beat, after yesterday’s semiconductor crash, signs the drop was fear, not fundamentals
· Steady or higher guidance would show confidence even as sector sentiment stays weak
Actionable Intel: Strong results could confirm real AI demand and spark a short-term rebound across chip stocks ($AMD, $NVDA, $SMH)
$TDG (TransDigm Group), Watch for:
· EPS around $10–10.5 with a stable outlook signals solid aviation demand
· Large order backlog and comments on steady aerospace parts orders suggest recovery as airlines expand schedules
Actionable Intel: TDG fits “defensive industrial + pricing power” theme. Beat + steady guidance = expected bounce. Watch peers BA, RTX, LHX, ITA ETF
$TME (Tencent Music), Watch for:
· Q3 EPS +45% YoY highlights strong profit growth despite weak China spending
· More paying users and healthier revenue mix between music and social entertainment show improving business quality
Actionable Intel: A TME beat challenges the “China consumer slump” story and lift other Chinese tech stocks (BABA, PDD, JD). A miss would pressure China tech names
B. Earnings Reactions from Yesterday (Move the Market)
· $LRCX (Lam Research): –5.02% | $MU (Micron): –5.01% | SMH: –2.16%
Chip-equipment stocks slid from record highs amid $AMD weakness and $NVDA stake sale by SoftBank. Implication: Reflects cooling AI-chip enthusiasm; near-term pressure on $AMAT and $TSM, though strong $CSCO results could trigger a relief rebound across sector
· $CRWV (CoreWeave): –16.31%
Cut FY25 revenue guidance and slashed CapEx by 40% after datacenter delays at partner $CORZ Implication: Signals bottlenecks in AI infrastructure buildout, not weak demand but supply-chain issues. Risks for chip-equipment $CSCO (tonight), $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC
· $XLV (Healthcare): +2.31% | $XBI (Biotech): +3.57%
Healthcare surged after FDA removed hormone-therapy warnings and approved two new menopause drugs. Implication: Marks accelerating rotation into defensive sectors with regulatory tailwinds ($MRK, $AMGN, $MRNA)
4. Critical News
Geopolitical / Trade:
Trump is close to a trade deal with India; China to ease rare-earth exports to the U.S. but exclude military-linked firms. Impact: Positive for $AAPL as lower tariffs boost iPhone margins; negative for U.S. defense ($LHX, $RTX, $NOC) reliant on rare earths. Bullish for domestic miners $MP and $UAMY (new $106.7M supply deal)
AI Infrastructure:
SoftBank sold its $5.8 B $NVDA stake to fund a $22.5 B OpenAI investment; $CRWV –13.8% after cutting guidance over datacenter delays. Impact: Highlights supply-chain bottlenecks in AI buildout, not demand weakness. Negative for $NVDA, $LRCX, $MU, $SMH short term
Regulatory / Healthcare:
FDA removed hormone-therapy “black box” warnings and approved two menopause drugs. Impact: Major tailwind for healthcare ($XLV +2.3%, $XBI +3.6%) and biotech names ($VTRS, $MRNA, $MRK, $AMGN). Pro-biotech tone supports IPO and M&A activity
Disclaimer: This document is a synthesis of publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions carry risk.
